Digitalization, bureaucracy, climate and social change.
Will Germany get its act together in a mobile global culture or will we slow ourselves down?
Interview with Growth Manager, Mobility and Fintech expert Matthias Trusheim.
Is the future of e-mobility in Germany at risk?
In fact, looking to this future poses a complex problem.
So let’s start briefly with the key elements of e-mobility and then look at the issue as a whole.
After all, the so-called “traffic turnaround” is not only dependent on energy in Germany, which is currently far too expensive.
No, it’s more down to a lack of innovation and networking with other sectors of the economy or industries, paralysing authorities, regulations and regulatory nonsense and, to make matters worse, the slowing pace of digitization, on which a change in mobility depends.
Instead of looking at the megatrends of our time and driving them forward as an asset in the EU, we are currently standing by, watching and hindering ourselves.
Slowing down the pace of digitization? How do you determine this?
I would like to give you a brief insight into this.
There is indeed an index, the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), whose results are unfortunately not very motivating.
The DESI is published by the European Commission and provides an overall assessment of the level of digitalization in European countries.
Germany has some catching up to do in the digital skills category.
It is ranked 23rd out of 28. Germany’s digital infrastructure also has shortcomings.
Although Germany previously invested a considerable budget in communications infrastructure, we are still only in the midfield in 13th place. Fiber optic expansion is making slow progress, 5G networks in rural areas are patchy and the introduction of 5G faces regulatory hurdles.
Although the coalition agreement promised ambitious plans for digitalization, the reality is different: According to the Federal Ministry of the Interior, for example, only around six percent of all available administrative services are available digitally across the board.
In many SMEs, however, people still talk about “new media” or IT.
This clearly and transparently shows where we still stand here, unfortunately.
But, let’s put it another way – these values are absolutely motivating!
After all, many companies are not content with the status quo, but are actively moving forward and acting as digital game changers.
The dynamic fintech and payment market is a very good example of this and is leading the way in many areas despite the resistance described above.
Doesn't social change also play a role?
Yes, exactly.
Megatrends are the biggest drivers of change in the economy and society and are shaping our future – not just in the short term, but in the medium to long term.
Megatrends develop their dynamics over decades.
We should therefore start here and network strategies and markets today in order to give e-mobility a boost – and dynamically position ourselves on the curve.
With the energy transition, filling stations have to reinvent themselves and electrify the “fuel station” into a feel-good zone.
This comes at a price.
Can e-mobility and the "Tanke" take on the role of game changer?
Yes, because if you recognize the new, additional touch points and offer really relevant services via them, charging becomes a minor matter and the stop becomes a “meaningful break”.
Retail is changing and with it the good old petrol station.
After all, they have long since become the extended arm of the retail trade, but are unfortunately still too rooted in the POS and full of interchangeable food retail products on the shelves.
The range is the same everywhere and without clear differentiation.
Where are the digital tools, added value and offers, where is the clear focus on change?
In recent years, the convenience and tech sectors have impressively underlined their relevance.
Now it is important to actively promote the future viability of filling stations with a clear focus on “e-mobility hubs“.
Refueling or charging is only secondary!
There is therefore undoubtedly a need to develop an even more relevant convenience business model, a new market place.
So, use the change for growth.
Will we need filling stations in cities in the future?
As already described, this traditional POS should be driven by curiosity, constantly reinventing itself and focusing on megatrends.
So, how is society changing, how are cities changing, how is mobility being used?
Cars are moving out of the cities.
Petrol stations, often built on urban land and provided by oil companies in return for a lease to supply the driving public, are having to reinvent themselves.
The death of petrol stations has long since begun.
Another generational change is therefore imminent for petrol stations.
Because the fact is that we are already moving away from the 5-day workplace towards the 3-day home office option.
Demographics and driver’s license ownership?
In Norway, 90% of all EV charging takes place at home or at work.
This makes it clear that the “convenience” offer at filling stations is of paramount importance in order to keep mobile customers coming to the filling station.
So how does the digital ecosystem “petrol station” and the changes in mobility react to the ever faster changing consumer demands for food, drink & shopping and digital rewards?
But let’s not talk about hot bockwurst, bags of potato chips, crates of water or filling material such as bread rolls that only look like them and taste like nothing.
What is it actually like at airports?
They have long since become oases of quality and convenience and are constantly evolving.
It might be worth taking a look at this disruptive “marketplace”.
So which mobility future will cities, consumers and oil companies choose?
The options move between the dimensions of the energy system and the mobility system.
Fossil and post-fossil carriers (including batteries and hydrogen) on the one hand – and vehicle-based concepts and mobility services on the other.
Many service station operators will of course try to extend the current business model into the future for as long as possible, as their model is usually based on the sale of fossil fuels, high-margin offers for daily needs and car washing as an additional trigger.
The CEO of Aral (BP Group) even says that “60 percent of all customer contacts no longer have anything to do with fuel”.
However, if we look at their current range and low convenience focus, I doubt this figure.
However, Germany’s largest petrol station chain aims to build hundreds of fast charging stations (UFC) for electric cars in order to lead the new business model into the future.
In addition to the oil companies, energy suppliers in particular are installing generally accessible charging points, including at supermarkets and hotels.
The Federal Network Agency recently counted almost 40,000 public charging points in Germany.
According to economists, such as the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI), the construction of charging stations and, in particular, fast-charging points helps to motivate potential customers to buy electric cars.
This is why the state not only promotes the purchase of vehicles, but also the development of the charging network.
It would be logical, economically and ecologically expedient, but the “traffic light” has suspended funding for the purchase of EVs.
I’d rather not comment on that.
Nevertheless, the filling station 2.0 will offer charging stations for EVs, primarily to extend their range.
That is why these filling stations and charging parks will not be located in city centers in the future, but primarily on the outskirts of cities and in rural areas.
Car sharing, rental cars or delivery fleets will then find their home here.
What happens to the municipal filling stations in the best-case scenario?
Due to good locations, they are upgraded to small supermarkets or even “transfer stations”.
In the middle of the city, where refueling no longer plays a major role, important social functions and communicative offers could be developed for the district.
Investments would then no longer be made in technical aspects, but in social and cultural aspects, in the ambience.
This could create cultural spaces that allow the city to breathe.
The current bike boom is also creating new markets.
Porsche is cooperating with the world’s largest bicycle manufacturer.
“Road Diet” is therefore a principle that urban players are increasingly relying on.
Urban road space for cars is being proactively reduced and new public spaces are being created for sustainable uses and active forms of mobility, such as cycling.
So petrol stations are turning into mobility hubs?
Yes, because they have the potential to drive forward the electrification of urban mobility.
Mobility centers that offer co-working space and much more are conceivable.
As with E.ON Drive, new architectures and spaces will emerge in the future that offer far more than just mobility.
Or that EV companies – i.e. former automotive companies – offer batteries for exchange or provide access to sharing, rental and subscription models (see FINN) and special public transport offers take us there.
Mobility therefore also means smart, comfortable travel.
This requires all mobility partners to work together.
Many concepts already exist, but a good business case is always characterized by a predictable ROI strategy and comprehensible timing.
And this is where things become difficult due to the brakes already described.
But at the moment we go to fill up where it's closest and where the price is best?
Today yes, but not tomorrow.
The competition between gas station and gas station is over.
Petrol stations are already competing with bakeries, discounters, casual food restaurants and snack bars.
Hence the strategy of leaving the latter there.
Also as an omnichannel POS for storing and picking up digitally ordered products.
Where is the company that continues to develop this path and has people and their social changes in mind?
Internationally, there are already many, but currently only a few in Germany.
Crippling bureaucratization takes away entrepreneurial vision and “cover your ass” management prevails in politicized organizations.
Digitization has a key role to play here.
Only those who acquire data and transparently demonstrate the benefits that data offers their entire organization will prevail in a new market.
What does AI create here, what can surprise, what can retain and what can remain relevant?
The offering at the filling station will have to become much more diverse and the EV market is ushering all of this in.
The traditional rules of vehicles and functions are thus being overridden.
Mobility is converging with the energy sector and the digital industry.
Those who do not change will be eliminated.
It will no longer just be the familiar car that dominates, but new transportation options with new infrastructures and marketplaces.
The car will become a capsule for transportation.
And autonomous driving makes mobility even more efficient and its portfolio even broader.
Driverless streetcars in Sydney and Copenhagen are already demonstrating this.
Autonomous cabs from Uber operate in Phoenix.
Anyone still clinging to conventional car infrastructures for autonomous, networked and electric vehicles has not yet understood the new requirements for the mobility of the future.
This can be seen time and again in the recruitment criteria in the automotive industry.
Only the profile of an applicant who has worked in this industry for at least 8 years will be considered.
So you’re fishing in your own pond and thus tripping yourself up.
It is certainly slowly softening somewhat, but unfortunately it is still part of this so-called “German Angst”.
At this point, I would like to return to the headline of this article, to the game changers and trends.
They determine the future of mobility and are suitable for an entrepreneurial outlook of one’s own actions, because all companies will have to deal with these paradigms in terms of content and organization in the future.
Is electromobility the key to climate-friendly mobility worldwide? And - what does green high-tech ecology have to do with mobility?
The European Commission’s “Green Deal” has translated sustainable management into legal texts.
Within the next 5 years, not only large listed companies with a turnover of over 40 million euros or a balance sheet total of over 20 million euros will have to disclose their environmental and social guidelines as well as details of sustainability targets and the company organization, but from 2026 small and medium-sized companies will also be obliged to do so.
And, mobility is an essential part of this reporting obligation, the data for which is already being collected in order to be prepared for the upcoming ESG environmental reporting by the end of 2024.
The question of a mobility strategy will therefore affect every company in the future: How will business trips be organized?
How do employees get to work?
What is the internal mobility policy?
Which vehicles are prioritized in the fleet?
Is there a mobility budget for alternative means of transportation?
There is no doubt about it.
Ecology will be the big issue of the 21st century.
The “Greta” generation has changed our view of the future.
But what kind of ecology are we actually talking about in this context?
Today’s “fear and blame” ecology can only divide society and ultimately does little to prevent CO2 emissions.
A “scarcity and sacrifice” ideology creates counterproductive stress and leads to distribution wars.
Could a different ecology shape the future and mobility?
Looking at the megatrends and their technological and systemic changes makes precisely this possible.
And one thing is clear: the operation of electric vehicles, especially in conjunction with electricity generated from renewable sources, produces significantly lower CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions.
In addition, electric vehicles will be able to act as mobile electricity storage units in the future to compensate for fluctuations in wind and solar power and thus improve the expansion and market integration of renewable energies.
This creates a space of possibility in which we are on the way to the future.
Game changing is the key.
But “If nothing changes nothing changes”.
Are we trying hard enough?
In addition to the hurdles and brakes already mentioned, environmental debates are having an impact on business models and corporate cultures.
A lack of understanding and, of course, convenience play a role here.
ESG or “Environmental, Social & Corporate Governance” is becoming increasingly important.
However, companies are no longer achieving success with indirect CO2 offsetting overseas.
The reason: society’s awareness of direct and local environmental and social issues has increased in recent years.
All sectors are in the midst of a radical process of change.
And here, too, it’s all about “getting your act together”.
Electricity prices and purchase costs are still extremely high. Does this situation affect the future of e-mobility?
The rise in electricity prices is causing problems for current e-mobility!
At least that’s what you hear from the automotive industry.
There are fears for the future of electric cars and the transport revolution in Germany.
For the models to become established, they must cost less per 100 kilometers than petrol or diesel vehicles.
Those without their own wallbox at home are the worst off.
The tariffs for public charging stations are now so high that electric vehicles are more expensive to run than combustion engines in many places.
And it is likely to be a few weeks at most before the next round of price increases from the charging network operators.
What would be a solution to this problem?
We need a regulatory corset, i.e. rules.
These should ensure that we maintain the normal gap between fuel prices and electricity prices.
Electricity must remain cheaper than petrol and diesel.
Only then will the incentive to buy electric cars be sufficient and the transport transition will succeed quickly enough.
And what about the acquisition costs?
However, the acquisition costs are the bigger brake in the current year 2024.
After all, in December, the traffic light government led by Economics Minister Robert Habeck announced the end of the EV purchase premium virtually overnight and even before the turn of the year out of helplessness as to how to counter the ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court due to sudden, acute financial problems.
This withdrawal tore a hole in the industry’s current plans and also shocked buyers who had already ordered an electric car.
But isn't the German government cutting into its own plans by ending the purchase premium?
If we in KPI-driven companies were to implement such promotions operationally without detailed business cases and without the sign-in of shareholders and the finance department and cause a shit storm for our suppliers and partners, new minds would be needed.
Despite these circumstances, the German government is sticking rigidly to the goal of having around 15 million EVs on Germany’s roads by 2030.
This seems just as unrealistic as the coalition agreement’s target of building over 400 thousand homes per year.
A miracle would probably have to happen to achieve these figures in the next seven years.
However, the EV production figures for the automotive sector show a positive increase. Isn't that a positive message?
Although the rising EV figures of +34% (1 HY 2024) at BMW show a positive trend (+2.3% compared to the previous year), this has been severely curtailed with regard to their original plans.
Due to this decline in EV sales, the market share of combustion engines is now experiencing an upswing.
The car rental company Hertz is clearly demonstrating this, as they are swapping e-cars for combustion engines again.
The sluggish expansion of the charging infrastructure and the corresponding networks, as described above, is also putting pressure on the industry.
I am happy to come back to Aral here, because they are complaining that the expansion of the infrastructure is stalling because the network operators are having problems with the power supply to the UFC charging station.
Is there enough electricity? Is the power grid fit for electromobility?
Around 15 million electric cars are expected to be on German roads by 2030.
They need to be connected to the grid.
But which one?
One thing is clear: we need to integrate the charging infrastructure into building management.
This will require business partnerships with cooperatives, local authorities, developers and the entire real estate industry.
But in general, the answer is simple.
If all of the 45 million or so cars on German roads were largely electric, this would require around 100 terawatt hours (TWh) per year – which is only one sixth of the total electricity consumed in Germany each year.
In 2019, for example, 244 TWh of electricity was generated from renewable energies, which is more than twice as much as a fully electric vehicle fleet would need.
So if electromobility catches on faster than planned, there will even be enough renewable energy available to power the vehicles.
And the expansion of renewable energies is also progressing rapidly.
You talked about the “opportunity space” and that game changing is the key.
So why will e-mobility prevail in Germany?
It will assert itself if politics asserts itself.
As already described, we are in a new era of mobility that is geared towards social megatrends.
A new era is often barely noticeable because the change processes are fluid.
People hardly notice the milestones of the change that is taking place.
It is therefore similar to many well-known developments in the last few decades of this millennium.
First the photography industry, then the music industry and then the automotive industry in the next decade.
E-mobility and autonomous driving will change the automotive industry.
The transformation will not be directly visible in the cars, which will look virtually unchanged for the time being.
But the filling stations will stand out.
They are among the most important catalysts of tomorrow’s mobility.
It will therefore be important to work with people who do not think in terms of the automotive industry, i.e. who come from a different industry and are disruptive.
In many conversations, however, I keep noticing how little awareness there is of how new technologies and mindsets from outside will also give rise to new business models and needs.
Obviously the car industry is still dreaming the beautiful sleep of success.
Yes, of course, and sorry it’s unfair to say that, because there are of course many innovatively driven car manufacturers, but I keep recognizing the pattern of naivety with regard to their human capital.
People are all too quick to think in the same patterns – in previous business models.
However, it is quite unlikely that this is exactly what will happen, i.e. a fundamental change in technology while the business model remains the same.
I see a high probability that these developments will come as described and it often happens faster than you think.
“Autonomy” will therefore be the killer app and the big wave to ride in the next decade.
After all this information, let’s get back to it in a nutshell:
What do companies - including those that are not part of the industry - need to do now?
Pay attention, develop and deliver.
The next ten years will change mobility more than the previous 100.
There will be some surprising success stories.
The gaming sector will gain relevance in this area, for example in bridging loading times as well as Web 3.0-based payment.
And this is just one example of how seemingly uninvolved companies can benefit from the transport revolution.
If they accept the challenges and think ahead.
How and where can independent experts support companies?
With a holistic view of short, medium and long-term developments.
It’s not about looking in the rear-view mirror, but about innovation and agility.
Thinking ahead, acting ahead.
We don’t need the thinking of authorities or experts who have concerns.
We need game changers.
Strategies don’t fail because of development, but because of implementation in the organization.
Often, you simply need fresh air to break out of your comfort zone.
About Matthias
Matthias Trusheim is one of Germany’s top consultants in the fields of e-mobility, telecommunications, payment and the networking of disruptive industries.
His current focus: the porous charging infrastructure in Germany and the trend reversal in the development from a rigid automotive mindset to trend-oriented mobility.
Prior to his current activities, the management consultant successfully accompanied transformation processes in the communications industry.
Trusheim lives in Munich and in between wherever growth and change are required.
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